Speculators are betting heavily against the price of 10-year U.S. Treasuries. It’s the second-largest short position since the CFTC began keeping records in 1992. History tells us this type of extreme positioning means bond prices are headed higher…
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In our view, the distress ratio is likely to double or triple from its current level by late 2023 or early 2024. And that means a crop of new distressed opportunities will soon arise.
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If the Federal Reserve is ending rate hikes, that means we’re reaching peak interest rates. And if you’re a bond investor, that’s a huge deal… because, if the coupon payment on sovereign debt isn’t going higher, soon you won’t be able to lock in today’s high yield.
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The reality is that the Fed’s actions could have the near-opposite effect of QE. Instead of easing financial conditions and boosting asset prices, they’ll likely lead to further tightening and hasten the arrival of the impending credit crunch.
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In light of the past week’s extraordinary market events, we’re releasing this “state of the markets” briefing.
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In today’s special edition of Something You Don’t Know, you’ll find an important briefing from credit analyst and author Martin Fridson, who leads Porter & Co.’s Distressed Investing team.
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In many ways, the 2020s inflation scenario matches that of the 1970s.
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The REIT we’ll introduce today offers an extra degree of safety. It avoids physical real estate properties entirely, and instead invests primarily in mortgage securities that are effectively backed by the government. And they’re a better buy than government bonds.
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The price of U.S. Treasury bonds is collapsing. Since the end of July, the 10-year Treasury rate has risen sharply, from a yield of 2.65% to over 4.3% now. There haven’t been bigger losses in the U.S. Treasury bond market, EVER. THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN HISTORY DEFLATES YOUR STANDARD OF LIVING IS GOING TO FALL
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